If someone had asked over a year ago, what countries are going to dominate foreign policy discussions few would have included Ukraine on the list. Now the United States, along with its European and NATO allies, are deeply involved in discussions with Russia and Ukraine to find a peaceful resolution to the conflict.
As the peace talks continued there was also a debate going on over the necessity of providing the Ukrainian military with defensive weapons. The Separatists in Eastern Ukraine have the support of the Russia. This support has allowed them to field heavy weapons on the battle field against the Ukrainian military often giving them an advantage.
Even with a cease fire that is now in place there is no guarantee that it will last. The Separatists have gained a significant amount of territory and they will not want to cede those gains through a peace process, especially when they believe that they have the advantage. Furthermore, the Ukrainian government is equally determined to regain lost ground. For the new leaders of the Ukrainian government their handling of this conflict will determine their political future and that of the country as well.
The European Union, however, is eager to see an end (or at least a temporary pause) to hostilities since they have the Greek debt crisis to manage. The German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, along with her European allies met with their Russian counterparts this week and had around the clock meetings to negotiate the ceasefire. At first glace this might be seen as a real effort to bring a permanent solution to the Ukraine crisis. However, the moment the ceasefire was negotiated the Angela Merkel and company left to handle the Greece crisis.
For the Russians, Ukraine is a much higher priority. The entire conflict started due to the Russian anxiety over loss of power as Ukraine formed stronger financial and political ties with the European Union and NATO. Russia sees Ukraine as being part of their sphere of influence politically, financially, and militarily. The strategically important port of Sevastopol in the Crimea is not the only reason that Ukraine is important to Russia. Ukraine also serves as buffer between Russia and, NATO and their European allies.
In 2008, when Russian interests in Georgia were threatened, they became involved militarily. Even after the French President at the time mediated peace talks, Russia did not cede ground. Even today Abkhazia and South Ossetia (once part of Georgia) are considered under Russian occupation. Georgia lost 20% of their internationally recognized territory by the end of the conflict. Russia's past behavior gives insight into their intentions for Ukraine. They will continue to support the Separatists in Ukraine with military and political support and use them as a proxy to maintain their influence in the region. Russia should not be allowed to destabilize Ukraine through war or peace. First Georgia's, and now Ukraine's sovereignty has been violated.
Through the peace process Russia should be required to move its forces back outside the internationally recognized borders of Ukraine. This would reduce direct Russian military support of the Separatists. However, the Russian withdrawal would not solve the Separatist problem. They can, and probably still will, be supported indirectly by Russia. To counter this problem, and help make Ukraine whole again, we need to supply the Ukrainian government with defensive weapons. The provision of these weapons to the Ukrainian government will give their government the tools to gain upper hand against the Separatists and unify the country. While the West cannot provide Ukraine the power to fight the whole Russian military they can help them defeat the Separatists.
Actions speak louder than words. It is time for the United States, NATO, and their European allies to act. A truly lasting peace is valuable at any price, even if the cost is supplying Ukraine with defensive weapons.
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