All Quite on the Blogging Front

I apologize for the absence. The holidays always make it difficult to write but I promise to be more steady in the weeks to come. Stay tuned!

The Game Plan in Iraq

Regardless of how much worse foreign policy and security pundits think the situation in Iraq is going to get, there is no denying the country is on the verge of a religious civil war. The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) is now claiming control of large parts of northern Iraq. They subscribe to a very radical form of Islam, and disturbingly for the Shia dominated government in Baghdad they are fiercely anti-Shia. The ISIL have stated unequivocally that they are coming to Baghdad. Even though the recent successes of the ISIL on the battlefield seem to paint a gloomy picture for the future of Iraq, the Iraqi government may still have options.

Due to the strong Shia influence over the new Iraqi government, Iraq’s ties with Iran have improved from the days of Saddam. There are already reports of potential for military cooperation between Iraq and Iran. That is not to say that this would be a great option. There is still a significant amount of distrust between the two governments, and Iran could try and use the opportunity to increase their influence in the region. Rather than help Iraq, they could simply let the government fall and try and do what Putin tried to do in eastern Ukraine, with the Shia dominated parts of Iraq near the Iranian border. With the Iraqi government and armed forces in disarray it is a unique opportunity for Iran to move into Iraq. They could claim that they are intervening to protect their Shia brothers and sisters (as well as a variety of holy Shia shrines). If the situation on the ground in Iraq continues to worsen then this may not be far from the truth. The Shia dominated parts of Iraq may look to Iran for assistance, especially as more Shia Iraqis refugees flee toward Iran. 

However, Iran is not scheming in a vacuum. The other major power in Iraq is the Kurds. They have not been sitting idle while the ISIL continues its movement toward Baghdad. Accounts from the area of Kirkuk, a strategic northern city in an oil rich region, indicate that the Kurds have taken control of the city. The Kurds have wanted to control the city for a long time, and they have taken advantage of the current instability to make their move. Normally, this type of action by the Kurds would not go unchallenged. However, due to the more imminent threat posed by the ISIL, and the fact that the Iraqi government is in desperate need of allies with boots on the ground, their rising influence may well go unchallenged for the time being. As with Iran, the Kurds have their own agenda. They too may be willing to let the Iraqi government fall, and use this as an opportunity to try and create a sovereign Kurdish state. Considering that their recent actions have not been stymied by Turkey and their other traditional rivals in the area, this may be exactly the opportunity that they have been waiting for.

In this maelstrom of potential strategies, one wonders what the United States will do. President Obama has made it clear that he will not send additional troops on the ground in Iraq. This statement from the President will most likely embolden the other players in the arena to act since they do not have to worry about another U.S. ground based intervention in Iraq. The United States still has options to strike from air and sea to try and slow the advance of the ISIL. The hope is that this will buy time for the Iraqi army to regroup and eventually retake lost ground (with weapons systems supplied by the United States). The problem with the air and sea strike approach is that it depends on the Iraqi military to get its act together. Considering the reports coming out of northern Iraq of discarded Iraqi military uniforms on the road sides ahead of the ISIL advance, the chances of that happening do not look good. Furthermore, a weaker ISIL also helps the Kurds as much as it helps the Iraqi government since they will also have a weaker rival in the ISIL. The benefit that may come from air and sea strikes on the ISIL is that it will let Iran know that the United States is still involved in Iraq, and that an intervention by Iran in Iraq would not go unchallenged.

Based on the options that the Iraqi government has, the situation on the ground in Iraq, and the ambitions of the other major powers in the area, there is a real possibility that the country may splinter. Whether that means a three way split between the ISIL, the current Iraqi government, and a newly formed Kurdish nation, or something else, is anyone’s guess. If the situation in Iraq does not stabilize, and the United States does not act effectively, our Middle Eastern allies (and rivals) may really start to believe that we have pivoted to Asia.

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The Union Comes to the South

No, this is not a historical article about the U.S. Civil War (though in 1861 today, November 20th, Kentucky's Confederate government filed its session ordinance). The "Union" here is the United Automobile Workers (UAW) union. The UAW is attempting to be recognized as the collective bargaining representative at Volkswagen's manufacturing plant in Chattanooga, TN. The recognition would be a major success for the UAW since the South has historically been resistant to unionization.

Hopefully, the UAW is successful and sets a modern precedent that helps unions expand in the South. Traditionally, unions tend to be supporters of the Democratic party and as such the unionization of manufacturing in the South may be seen a risk to the Republican party. However, this does not have to be a polarizing political issue.

Unions collectively bargain for workers to ensure that there is fair pay for fair work. The "fair work" part of the equation is often lost in translation. When people hear about Unions negotiating their contract with employers they tend to focus on worker pay and benefits. The other side of the equation is that these wage and benefit increases are generally tied to increases in productivity. Intuitively, this makes sense since the companies are in business to turn a profit. Continually, increasing worker pay and benefits without gaining anything in return from workers could bankrupt the company. Another important benefit to business from unionization is that it reduces the chances of strikes or other types of work stoppages conducted by workers. The contracts have an term limit and, as that limit is approached the union and the employer come to the table with their demands and design a new contract. This process brings stability for the business since they know that a strike will happen only if the contract negotiations fail.

To be fair the history of unions does have some intrigue like potential Mafia connections, back room deals, and even murder. Though the truth is unionization has been an win-win for both the employer and the worker. The workers are able to more successfully obtain better wages and benefits while the employer gains from mandated productivity increases (enforced by the union and employer in the contract) and the stability brought by the reduced probability of strikes. 

Furthermore, Republicans tend to favor deregulation, and unions can help with that. The federal government would not have to constantly manage workers rights since unions can collectively bargain to resolve issues like worker's safety.

From both a business and a political stand point unions can be a success.                                             

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On Immigration Reform

Type "immigration reform" into any search engine and, you inevitably get to images that show children and adults of Hispanic origin protesting with signs in English and Spanish. Furthermore, in most political analyses of the issue, individuals usually discuss the importance of the Latino vote.

However, immigration reform is not just an issue to be used a political football in the game to win the Latino vote. Men and women are being detained and deported while the nation debates the issue.

I am not suggesting that the President should create policy unilaterally through executive order. Congress should work to create legislation, in coordination with the White House, to help resolve the immigration issue. The problem is that Congress has failed to act on the issue since the beginning of President Obama's second term.

The Republican party is now in control of Congress. They have the opportunity to pass immigration reform. This would not be a watershed moment. An idol of the Republican party, Ronald Reagan, spearheaded efforts to resolve immigration issues during his presidency that provided legal status to approximately three million immigrants who were in the country illegally.

On the same token the current President can help move the process along. However, using, or threatening to use, executive orders is not the way to coax Congress into action. Attempting to create policy without their involvement only antagonizes them further. Congressman Boehner, the Republican leader of the House is now saying that he will fight  President Obama on immigration, "tooth and nail." Moreover, the Republicans in Congress have the option to use the "power of the purse," their ability to control the budget of the government, which allows them to stall progress on a variety of issues by potentially shutting down the government. Considering that the government was shut down recently due to political brinkmanship, the possibility of this happening again is not that remote.  

We have had the ability to deal with the issue. The solution involves a combination of strong border control and, a path to legal status for those undocumented immigrants (who have not committed any crimes once inside the United States) that are already in the United States, particularly families.

I think that most Americans would agree (regardless of their political leanings) that we need to secure our borders. Not just to hinder individuals who are trying to cross illegally in search of opportunity but, also to prevent those who are intent on causing harm to Americans. More importantly this needs to be part of any immigration reform in order to gain Republican support.

Additionally, the package on immigration reform has to provide a path to legal status. Simply catching and deporting people is not going to resolve this issue. Furthermore, we should not be kicking out individuals and families who come to our country to work hard and create a better life. Those who do not have a legal status work for salaries, but do not receive many government benefits which are only provided to those workers who have legal status. Yet, they continue to work. The undocumented workers should be given a chance to earn a legal status.

Ultimately, you can always argue that coming to United States illegally should lead to deportation. However, in the United States we believe in giving people a second chance, a new start. Our country was founded by people looking for a new start, and we should give those who come to United States to work hard and raise a family, the same opportunity (even if they do not have legal status). As Sheldon Adelson, major Republican campaign contributor and Chairman of the Las Vegas Sands, once said in support of immigration reform, "Democrats don't have a monopoly on having hearts." To the Republican majority in Congress - have a heart - pass immigration reform. Helping those in need is the American way.

Introduction

The True Blue Conservative is created as a forum for substantive analysis and debate on the issues that matter to us as citizens of the United States. There many places on the internet that will provide you with information on issues but, no true analysis. 

This site is bipartisan, hence the "Blue Conservative". The site was created with the intention that the comment section of articles can be used to foster a discussion of the issues and, offer creative solutions to them.

This is a site by the people and, for the people. Thank you for reading and, constructively participating.   

Regards,

Ronald Dogood