The Game Plan in Iraq

Regardless of how much worse foreign policy and security pundits think the situation in Iraq is going to get, there is no denying the country is on the verge of a religious civil war. The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) is now claiming control of large parts of northern Iraq. They subscribe to a very radical form of Islam, and disturbingly for the Shia dominated government in Baghdad they are fiercely anti-Shia. The ISIL have stated unequivocally that they are coming to Baghdad. Even though the recent successes of the ISIL on the battlefield seem to paint a gloomy picture for the future of Iraq, the Iraqi government may still have options.

Due to the strong Shia influence over the new Iraqi government, Iraq’s ties with Iran have improved from the days of Saddam. There are already reports of potential for military cooperation between Iraq and Iran. That is not to say that this would be a great option. There is still a significant amount of distrust between the two governments, and Iran could try and use the opportunity to increase their influence in the region. Rather than help Iraq, they could simply let the government fall and try and do what Putin tried to do in eastern Ukraine, with the Shia dominated parts of Iraq near the Iranian border. With the Iraqi government and armed forces in disarray it is a unique opportunity for Iran to move into Iraq. They could claim that they are intervening to protect their Shia brothers and sisters (as well as a variety of holy Shia shrines). If the situation on the ground in Iraq continues to worsen then this may not be far from the truth. The Shia dominated parts of Iraq may look to Iran for assistance, especially as more Shia Iraqis refugees flee toward Iran. 

However, Iran is not scheming in a vacuum. The other major power in Iraq is the Kurds. They have not been sitting idle while the ISIL continues its movement toward Baghdad. Accounts from the area of Kirkuk, a strategic northern city in an oil rich region, indicate that the Kurds have taken control of the city. The Kurds have wanted to control the city for a long time, and they have taken advantage of the current instability to make their move. Normally, this type of action by the Kurds would not go unchallenged. However, due to the more imminent threat posed by the ISIL, and the fact that the Iraqi government is in desperate need of allies with boots on the ground, their rising influence may well go unchallenged for the time being. As with Iran, the Kurds have their own agenda. They too may be willing to let the Iraqi government fall, and use this as an opportunity to try and create a sovereign Kurdish state. Considering that their recent actions have not been stymied by Turkey and their other traditional rivals in the area, this may be exactly the opportunity that they have been waiting for.

In this maelstrom of potential strategies, one wonders what the United States will do. President Obama has made it clear that he will not send additional troops on the ground in Iraq. This statement from the President will most likely embolden the other players in the arena to act since they do not have to worry about another U.S. ground based intervention in Iraq. The United States still has options to strike from air and sea to try and slow the advance of the ISIL. The hope is that this will buy time for the Iraqi army to regroup and eventually retake lost ground (with weapons systems supplied by the United States). The problem with the air and sea strike approach is that it depends on the Iraqi military to get its act together. Considering the reports coming out of northern Iraq of discarded Iraqi military uniforms on the road sides ahead of the ISIL advance, the chances of that happening do not look good. Furthermore, a weaker ISIL also helps the Kurds as much as it helps the Iraqi government since they will also have a weaker rival in the ISIL. The benefit that may come from air and sea strikes on the ISIL is that it will let Iran know that the United States is still involved in Iraq, and that an intervention by Iran in Iraq would not go unchallenged.

Based on the options that the Iraqi government has, the situation on the ground in Iraq, and the ambitions of the other major powers in the area, there is a real possibility that the country may splinter. Whether that means a three way split between the ISIL, the current Iraqi government, and a newly formed Kurdish nation, or something else, is anyone’s guess. If the situation in Iraq does not stabilize, and the United States does not act effectively, our Middle Eastern allies (and rivals) may really start to believe that we have pivoted to Asia.