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Saturday, February 28, 2015

Teaching Ukraine to Fish

Initial reports show that the ceasefire in Ukraine may be holding. Large artillery pieces are being pulled back from the front lines by the separatist and Ukrainian government forces. Yet there is still sporadic fighting between government and separatist forces along the front lines of the conflict. The question on everyone's mind is if this lull in the conflict is step towards peace or are the separatists using this time to resupply so that they can push further into government controlled territory?

The movement of heavy artillery by separatists and the Ukrainian government forces away from the front lines would indicate that the ceasefire may be working since the heavy artillery is giving the separatists the upper hand against Ukraine's government forces. However, sources indicate that the separatist commanders still have the intention of capturing a few more areas in Eastern Ukraine with strong pro-Russian leanings. Therefore, the separatists may be using this lull in the fighting to regroup and resupply.

A renewal in the fighting may be a boon to the Russian President Vladimir Putin. The intervention of Russia in the conflict has made Putin increasing popular in certain segments of Russian society. Furthermore, renewed fighting would pull some of the media spotlight from the recent assassination of a vocal critic of President Putin, Boris Nemtsov.

The Russian President is not the only one who benefit from the renewed conflict. The Ukrainian government has effectively lost control of the far eastern half of their country and they want it back. The Ukrainian government has already requested arms assistance from its Western allies, a topic which is discussed in detail in the previous article "War and Peace in Ukraine". While the request was made at a time when ceasefire was not initiated, the request has not been yet been publicly withdrawn. No political leader wants to preside over the break up of his country.

The violation of Ukrainian sovereignty by the Russian government, both through the their direct and indirect support of the separatists, is an act that should not go unchallenged by the rest of the world. The sanctions on Russia are not a stand alone solution to the problem just like the the ceasefire is not a lasting peace. Even with a ceasefire, which was hailed in the West as a victory, Ukraine still lost ground to the separatists. The separatist victory in Eastern Ukraine showed the Russians that they could intervene with virtual impunity in Eastern European countries they share a border with.

Whether or not the separatists resupply themselves during the ceasefire, the Ukrainian government should resupply and, the West should help. Ukraine is a country with a democratically elected government that is being bullied. The West may not be able to fight Ukraine's battle but, they can provide Ukraine with the necessary assistance to help them defend their democracy.

There are those who would argue that by providing weapons to Ukraine the West is providing fuel to the fire. However, this scenario is different. The West would be supporting a democratically elected government. This is different than Syria, for example, where the rebels have no clear leadership and in some cases are colluding with religious fundamentalists.

The West is a beacon, not just for immigrants looking for a better life but, also for countries that want to be democracies. If Ukraine is not supported in its time of need it will send the wrong message to other pro-democracy governments around the world. As the old saying goes, give a man a fish and he will feed himself today but, teach a man to fish and he will never go hungry again. Giving Ukraine a ceasefire will provide them with a temporary peace but, providing them with with the support they need to earn their peace themselves may prove to be the long term solution.

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