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Monday, March 16, 2015

Race to Election 2016

The United States presidential election is coming up in 2016. Naturally, the candidates who are planning on running for the elections are preparing now. Both the Democrats and the Republicans have yet to choose which candidate they plan on running (something that will not be decided until the end of the primaries)

Unofficially, the top choice for the Democratic party is Hillary Clinton. The wife of ex-President Bill Clinton, she has developed a strong political career with her last major political office being Secretary of State during the Obama administration. The Republicans have more candidates competing for the ticket but, Jeb Bush (brother of ex-President Bush Jr. and son of ex-President Bush Sr.) seems to be in the man most likely to run for the Office of the President from the Republican party. Jeb has raised significant capital from the major Republican donors. Reportedly, Jeb has absorbed so much of the Republican donor money that Mitt Romney, the last Republican to run for president and a (once) strong contender for the 2016 election, has decided to not run for the presidential election even though he initially announced that he would.

I do not have a crystal ball. Therefore, I cannot guarantee who the Republican and Democratic candidates for president in 2016 will be. However, as previously suggested I predict that it will be a race between Hillary Clinton on the Democratic side versus Jeb Bush on the Republican side. Assuming that that happens I think that it would be useful to have a chart that summarizes their respective positions on major issues. This is a bipartisan blog so the goal is to inform, not to convince readers that one side is better than the other.

(I apologize in advance if any of the information is inaccurate. Please feel free to offer legitimate corrections in the comment section.)

Issue
Jeb Bush
Hillary Clinton
Immigration
·         He supports strengthening the border (not a surprise statement from a Republican candidate) and wants to work with Congress to pass lasting reform (instead of using executive orders).
·         He has demurred when asked if he would repeal the immigration related executive orders that President Obama has passed stating that he prefers to pass laws to executive orders (his speeches have suggested  he wants to provide law-abiding illegal immigrants with a path to legal status so his demurring may be a political move to appease the Republican base but keep the orders in place in case he cannot pass legislation).   
·         He has taken a softer stance than many of his fellow Republicans when he stated that illegal immigration can be "an act of love".       
·         She supports the President's executive actions on immigration.
·         However, like Jeb Bush she wants to pass legislation instead of using executive orders.
·         She has highlighted that there was a bipartisan bill in 2013 that failed in the Republican controlled house which led to the President having to act unilaterally to push through immigration reform (this suggests that while she has supported immigration legislation she may use executive actions if progress on legislation stalls - considering that she may have to face a hostile Congress as President she may find the need to may use executive orders).       
Foreign Policy
·         He has criticized President Obama's foreign policy as being too weak when it comes to dealing with ISIS in the Middle East and Putin in Russia.
·         Both his father and his brother have been Presidents but, Jeb Bush has vehemently stated that his foreign policy will be his own and, that he is his own man.
·         While he will be responsible for foreign policy as the President, based on his selection of foreign policy advisors he will be advised by many of the same the same individuals (like Paul Wolfowitz) as his brother.  
·         She wants to take a more structured approach, insinuating that President Obama's policy of "Don't do stupid stuff" is not enough.
·         Her statements from interviews may suggest that she wants to play a more active role, including putting boots on the ground when necessary (like in the Syrian conflict) instead of relying solely on support type roles like drone strikes.
·         A more hawkish approach combined with open criticism of President Obama's foreign policy has the risk of alienating her liberal base. However, if she is the Democratic shoe-in for 2016 then she may be more concerned about the general election (where a stronger stance may win her more votes) than the primaries.       
Healthcare
·         He stepped down from be in the board of directors of Tenet Healthcare Corp. to be able to run for the office of the President which suggests that he has experience dealing with healthcare issues.
·         However, as recently as 2014 Tenet Healthcare has been accused of insurance payment fraud and has been convicted of similar crimes in the past leading the company to pay massive settlement fines.
·         He has not come out in support of Obamacare (aka the ACA), however, in an interview from 2009 (before the ACA roll-out) on CNBC he stated that he did support that the U.S. should have universal insurance coverage. He also speaks about reimbursing medical providers based on the quality of care. These are two major principals of the ACA.
·         He as stated in the past that there are issues with Medicaid expansion under the ACA (Florida has not expanded Medicaid). However, he was part of a healthcare company that has been accused of government healthcare payment fraud.         
·         She spearheaded healthcare reform as First Lady during Bill Clinton's administration in 1993.
·         Her 1993 plan is similar to Obamacare today (like requiring that all Americans purchase health insurance) which suggests that she has supported Obamacare style reforms long before Obamacare.
·         She is in support of Medicaid expansion.
·         While Hillary may try to make herself unique from President Obama's healthcare initiatives, she supports solutions that are very similar. However, she does support modifying the current healthcare reforms.
·         One of the reforms she may focus on fixing is the employer mandate where some businesses are moving employees from full-time to part-time positions in order to avoid healthcare costs.
    
Economy
·         Diverging from the Republican status quo he has stated that he wants to focus on income inequality (instead of focusing simply on tax cuts like his brother).
·         He is in favor of tax reform but he has not provided many details.
·         As Governor of Florida he cut many taxes for businesses and individuals but, he also increased spending by the state which shows that he may be willing to compromise with liberals.
·         He wants to see the middle class grow strong and wants the economy to grow much faster than it is now to support middle class growth. One of the ways that he may help America grow is through increased international trade.      
·         Many of her economics ideas are expected to be standard Democratic ones such as increasing the minimum wage, reforming the tax code to close loop holes and, trying to decrease income inequality.
·         She has also suggested some newer ideas such as trying to find ways to increase employee profit sharing.
·         She has a track record of supporting trade agreements but has suggested that as President she would review agreements (including those that have already been made) to make sure that they really do benefit America.
·         She support environmentally conscious energy production so she would oppose projects such as oil drilling at the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge.   
Education
·         He support the Common Core - standardization of academics (like in math and English)
·         As Governor of Florida his education policies included "pay for performance" - teacher pay based on student performance, mandating that students met the standards of their grade before being allowed to move forward, increasing choices that parents have on where to send their kids to school (like charter schools and voucher programs).         
·         She supports Common Core
·         However, she is against the use of voucher programs to help pay for private schooling since she feels that they divert necessary dollars from public schools.
·         Wants to make higher education more cost effective (however, she purportedly charged a $225,000 speaking fee to give a talk on affordable education).
                    

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