Risky Business: US, Iran, and the China Wildcard

     Qom, Iran - Over one million Iranians go about their daily routines in this metropolis. Beyond being home to one of the most important religious sites in Shia Islam it is also home to a plethora of museums and universities. However, the city has become well know in recent years not just for its culture but, also because it lies in the shadow of one of Iran's most fortified uranium enrichment facilities. Uranium that is enriched to the appropriate level is one of the main components for a nuclear weapon. Reports in recent months have indicated that Iran may intend to refine enough weapons-grade Uranium to create a nuclear weapon.          

    The United States and its allies have been in senior level negotiations in an effort to persuade Iran to cease pursing the creation of a nuclear weapon. In the last couple of days the news has exploded with analysis over the leaked details of the potential deal between the United States and Iran. The basic outline of the deal is that in exchange for Iran's reduction in the number of functioning centrifuges (the devices need to enrich the Uranium necessary to create a nuclear weapon) it will be offered certain incentives such as an easing of sanctions that have crippled Iran's economy. 

    If you are reading the fine print you may ask that if the deal only reduces the number of centrifuges, can't Iran still pursue the production of a nuclear weapon with enriched Uranium from the remaining centrifuges? The short answer is, yes. Experts state that the passage of this deal would delay the production a nuclear weapon by approximately a year. Based on the details, the current deal would be a stepping stone to a treaty with Iran that would hopefully dissuade them from pursuing the production of a nuclear weapon for the long term.

    However, what are the chances that a greater deal will occur? Many state that one of the reasons that the Iranians have come back to the negotiation table is the drop in oil prices. The export of oil is the major source of revenue for the government of Iran. The drop in oil prices, when combined with the sanctions and the recent drop in the value of their currency, has put strong economic pressure on Iran to negotiate. A year from now, will this perfect storm of strong economics pressures exist, especially after the easing of sanctions gives Iran an economic boost? Moreover, while the West may have sanctioned Iran, Iran has gained a strong partner in China.

    China is one of Iran's biggest trading partners. They purchase a large amount of Iran's oil and provide Iran with technological expertise in a wide range of fields from energy to military. Furthermore, they also provide Iran with military hardware that is used to modernize its defense forces. The relationship between the world power and the regional power may not end at economic cooperation. There is speculation that China's interest in Iran springs from their desire to counter US influence in the Middle East.

     Therefore, for any successful deal with Iran would require either the direct or indirect support of China. This may seem impossible considering the potential conflict of interest, however, the ties that bind China and United States are strong. The United States is China's largest trade partner. Beijing does not always agree with Washington but, they do not want to significantly damage relations with them either. In the current negotiations with the United States Iran has very little to lose (they are already sanctioned) if they do not keep their word. However, with China involved the risk for the Iranians would be damaging trade relations with their biggest partner if they cannot make the deal work.

     There are a multitude of Chinese proverbs from Confucius or Sun-Tzu that I could use to carry the point across and conclude but, I will not use them. Simply put, China has stated that its foreign policy is based on principles of peaceful coexistence and cooperation for mutual benefit. The United States also believes on those principals. The Iran deal is an opportunity for both countries to work together and help bring stability to the Middle East.